The UK is experiencing unseasonably mild weather as temperatures reach the mid-teens. On Tuesday, Cambridge recorded a high of 17.6°C, and this pleasant climate is expected to continue into Thursday. Bonfire Night looks frost-free due to the warm air originating from the southwest, combined with an influx of frontal rain across western Europe.
Weather Developments
This mild pattern is influenced by remnants of ex-hurricane Melissa, which struck Jamaica at Category 5 before evolving into an extra-tropical low in the North Atlantic. This weather system has been lingering near Iceland, while a new low-pressure area is moving into the Bay of Biscay.
Rainfall and Flooding Risks
Recent heavy rains have caused significant flooding, particularly in Wales, affecting cities such as Swansea, Carmarthenshire, and Pembrokeshire. Many roads have become submerged, disrupting rail services. Flood warnings remain in effect for the regions surrounding the rivers Taf, Teifi, and Towy.
- Flood Alerts: Ongoing warnings for parts of Cumbria with some roads also submerged.
- Transport Updates: The West Coast Mainline railway reopened after a landslip earlier in the week.
Supermoon Concerns
Tonight will feature a supermoon, appearing larger and brighter due to its elliptical orbit. There is heightened concern for coastal flooding due to spring tides combined with a southwesterly wind pushing additional water onshore. The Environment Agency advises the public to steer clear of low-lying coastal roads, promenades, car parks, and harbour paths, which may become submerged.
Evening Forecast
For most of the UK, the evening promises fair conditions. Areas in the north may experience rain, particularly in southern Scotland and along the Central Belt. The southern coast of England may see heavy showers brush against it, but overall, conditions remain mild.
Looking Ahead
Thursday’s forecast indicates a mix of weather, with clusters of heavy showers moving northward. Milder conditions are expected to prevail across most of Britain, although there will be variability in cloud cover throughout the day.
- Expected Temperatures: 16°C – 18°C across many areas.
- Weather Influence: Systems in western Europe will also affect conditions, with warnings in France and on the Iberian Peninsula.
As the weekend approaches, the air is predicted to become more turbulent, suggesting a shift from the current mild temperatures.
