As the Montreal mayoral election approaches, Soraya Martinez Ferrada of Ensemble Montréal has expanded her lead over her opponent, Luc Rabouin from Projet Montréal. With just three days until voting day, Ferrada now leads by 15 percentage points. Nevertheless, a significant portion of the electorate, approximately one-third, remains undecided.
Latest Polling Data
According to a recent survey by Pallas Dalta, conducted on October 25 among 608 Montreal voters, Ferrada positioned herself at 33% support, while Rabouin secured 18%. This represents a notable increase of about 7 points from the recent Segma-Radio-Canada poll conducted two weeks ago.
Undecided Voters Remain a Key Factor
- 29% of voters are still undecided, a significant figure as election day approaches.
Support for Gilbert Thibodeau of Action Montréal has also grown, placing him third with 11% of the vote. In contrast, Craig Sauvé of Transition Montréal received 6%, and Jean-François Kacou of Futur Montréal garnered just 3%.
Linguistic Divides in Support
The voting intentions reflect a notable linguistic split. Among Francophones, Rabouin and Ferrada are closely matched, with 27% and 24% support, respectively. Conversely, Ferrada demonstrates a strong lead among Anglophones, with 46% backing, compared to 7% for Thibodeau and 6% for Rabouin.
Demographic Insights
Voter age plays a significant role in support trends. Ferrada is particularly favored by voters aged 50-64, where she captures 46% of the vote, while Rabouin receives only 13%. However, Rabouin tends to attract younger voters, who historically show lower turnout rates.
Candidates’ Reactions and Voter Turnout
Both candidates have commented on the polls while emphasizing their commitment to the voters. Ferrada stated, “We are working hard to provide the change Montrealers deserve,” while Rabouin expressed confidence in his campaign despite the polling numbers.
It is noteworthy that around 9.3% of Montreal residents participated in advance voting last Sunday, reflecting a decrease compared to the 2021 elections. Many voters experienced long lines and some logistical challenges, prompting candidates to urge Élections Montréal to enhance their operations for the upcoming election.
The election day will occur on November 2, and both candidates will be closely monitoring voter turnout and sentiments leading to the final results.
