A recent Emerson College Polling survey indicates a strong likelihood of California’s Proposition 50 passing in the upcoming election. With just under two weeks until voting day, 57% of likely voters support the proposition aimed at making temporary changes to the state’s congressional maps. In addition, support rises to 60% when including undecided voters.
Proposition 50’s Growing Approval
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that certain demographic groups are shifting their opinions. For instance, support among Black voters surged from 45% to 71%. He observed that the proposition appears likely to pass, given the results are outside the poll’s margin of error.
Voter Perspectives
The survey details reveal a complex landscape of public opinion. Here are some key insights:
- 56% of likely voters view Proposition 50 as a good idea, while 44% see it as a bad idea.
- Support for the measure increased from 52% to 56% since September.
- Among those voting “yes,” 89% consider it a good idea.
- Conversely, 93% of those voting “no” view it as a bad idea.
Political Landscape and Key Figures
Governor Gavin Newsom boasts a job approval rating of 48%, with a disapproval rate of 41%. Comparatively, President Donald Trump holds a 37% approval and a 60% disapproval rating among California voters.
Favorability Ratings
The survey assessed the favorability of several notable figures:
- Barack Obama (Proponent of Prop. 50): 62% favorable, 32% unfavorable
- Arnold Schwarzenegger (Opponent of Prop. 50): 43% favorable, 33% unfavorable
- Tom Steyer (Proponent of Prop. 50): 15% favorable, 16% unfavorable
As California looks to the 2026 governor’s race, current support for candidates stands as follows:
- Steve Hilton (Republican): 16%
- Katie Porter (Democrat): 15%
- Chad Bianco (Republican): 11%
- Xavier Becerra (Democrat): 5%
- Antonio Villaraigosa (Democrat): 5%
- Undecided voters: 39%
Key Issues for Voters
Top concerns for California voters are distinctly outlined:
- Economy: 30%
- Housing affordability: 26%
- Threats to democracy: 12%
- Immigration: 11%
For the nation as a whole, voters also prioritize the economy, followed closely by threats to democracy.
Survey Methodology
The Emerson College Polling survey took place from October 20-21, 2025, involving a sample of 900 likely voters in California. The credibility interval is estimated at +/- 3.19 percentage points. The results were weighted according to U.S. Census parameters, gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region.
Voters participated through a combination of text messaging and online panel interviews, ensuring a diverse range of responses. All findings and detailed demographics can be accessed through Emerson College’s published results.
