The federal government shutdown has reached a critical juncture, now ranking as the second-longest in history. As of now, Day 21 of the shutdown continues without a resolution. If the impasse drags on into early November, it may surpass the previous record of 35 days set during Donald Trump’s first administration.
Current Dynamics of the Shutdown
The blame game between Democrats and Republicans is intensifying. Historically, it is often the side that imposes additional policy demands that loses public support during shutdowns. In this instance, the Democrats are pushing for an extension of enhanced Obamacare subsidies.
Public Sentiment on Shutdowns
Polls indicate a significant portion of the public disapproves of using shutdowns as leverage. Recent surveys show a shift in blame towards Republicans. A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted from October 15-20 indicates that 50% of Americans blame congressional Republicans compared to 43% who blame Democrats. This trend is echoed in a CNBC poll from October 8-12, where 53% of respondents attributed the blame to Trump and Republicans against 37% for Democrats.
- Polling indicates a continued trend of blame against Republicans during the shutdown.
- Independent voters blame Trump by a nearly 3-to-1 margin (58%-21%).
Historical Context of Shutdowns
This shutdown is not the first of its kind. The previous longest shutdowns occurred in 1995-96, lasting 21 days, and in 2018-19, which lasted 35 days. Both instances saw Republicans making the policy demands and subsequently facing significant public backlash.
Key Polling Throughout Shutdowns
In the 1995-96 shutdown, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll indicated that Americans were ready to blame Republicans by 11 points even before it started. As it progressed, that gap widened to over 20 points. Similarly, in 2018-19, pre-shutdown polling showed a 14-15 point blame margin against Trump and the Republicans.
Implications of the Current Shutdown
A critical factor in the Democrats’ strategy is public support for their demands. A recent Reuters-Ipsos poll shows that 72% of Americans, including 51% of Republicans, favor the extension of health care subsidies. However, the challenge lies in whether Americans believe these demands justify the continuation of the shutdown.
Upcoming Deadlines
November 1 marks an essential deadline, coinciding with the initiation of open enrollment for Obamacare plans. As this date approaches, Americans may begin to notice increased premiums resulting from the subsidy lapse, potentially pushing Democrats to reassess their stance.
The Potential Shift in Strategy
Democrats may contemplate yielding to pressures from public sentiment regarding rising premiums. There is speculation that Republicans could feel compelled to engage in negotiations to avoid the fallout of increased costs for constituents. Acknowledging the current political landscape, Democrats may see this as an opportunity to secure a significant victory.
The next ten days will be pivotal. The dynamics surrounding the shutdown remain fluid and markedly distinct from previous shutdown scenarios. As the impacts of the shutdown begin to materialize, the strategies of both parties may evolve in response to public opinion and political pressures.
