The upcoming matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is shaping up to have significant ramifications for the NFC playoff race. Both teams are performing well, but the Lions’ current injury situation could pose challenges. This in-depth preview highlights key statistics and elements to watch as these two teams prepare to face off.
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Statistical Overview
Lions Passing Offense vs. Buccaneers Pass Defense
- Lions Pass Offense: Currently ranked 5th in DVOA, Detroit excels in passing efficiency.
- Quarterback Jared Goff: Averaging a passer rating of 122.4, 5th in the NFL.
- Yards per Attempt: 8.0, ranking 5th overall.
Despite a lower intended yards per pass attempt (6.7, 29th in the NFL), the Lions have shown they can accumulate yardage effectively. The expected return of left tackle Taylor Decker could enhance their pass protection, currently rated as average.
- Buccaneers Pass Defense: Ranked 20th overall, they struggle against efficient passing teams.
- Pass Rush Ranking: Eighth in pass rush win rate, but 27th in EPA per dropback on short passes (under 10 yards).
Lions Run Offense vs. Buccaneers Run Defense
- Lions Run Offense: Currently 8th in the league but has faced inconsistency this year.
- Average Yards per Carry: 4.4, ranked 16th.
- Explosive Runs: Just 15 runs over 10 yards this season, highlighting a lack of big plays.
Detroit’s offensive line grades highly, yet their overall rushing performance appears below last year’s standards. Conversely, Tampa Bay boasts a formidable run defense.
- Buccaneers Run Defense: Ranked 6th, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry.
- Success Rate: 34.1%, demonstrating strong efficiency against opponents.
Buccaneers Passing Offense vs. Lions Pass Defense
The Buccaneers have managed to keep an efficient offense rolling, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, despite key injuries among their receivers. Tampa Bay ranks high in passer metrics.
- Passer Rating: 108.5, placed 5th in the league.
- Yards per Attempt: 7.9, rated 7th overall.
However, they face a struggling Lions’ pass defense, which will be missing several starters.
- Lions Pass Defense Metrics: Currently 14th, facing challenges with severe injuries in the secondary.
- Pressures Allowed: 8.5% sack rate, indicating significant potential for pressure.
Buccaneers Run Offense vs. Lions Run Defense
Tampa Bay ranks 19th in run offense, heavily influenced by Mayfield’s scrambling ability. Running back Rachaad White has been less effective compared to expectations.
- Average Yards per Carry: 4.0, which ranks 22nd overall.
- Quarterback Scrambling: Contributes significantly to the Bucs’ ground game success.
The Lions’ run defense remains solid, currently ranked 5th despite facing some challenges against more effective rushing attacks.
Prediction and Key Factors
This matchup is likely to be a battle of quarterbacks. Goff and Mayfield both carry the pressure of leading their offenses amid critical injuries. The Lions must effectively exploit Tampa Bay’s defensive weaknesses, while the Buccaneers look to maintain their momentum against a compromised Lions secondary.
Considering the overall health of each team’s key players and the statistical advantages, the prediction leans toward the Buccaneers. Expect a closely contested game that could end with the Buccaneers winning, potentially 27-24.
