Recent attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries have significantly impacted fuel production, leading to a growing crisis in Russia. The country’s Energy Ministry acknowledged this issue on June 9, attributing production cuts to increased enemy air assaults targeting critical refinery components.
Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak confirmed that oil production has declined due to “unscheduled maintenance” at refineries. The maintenance was necessitated by the heightened frequency of attacks, marking an unprecedented acknowledgment of Ukraine’s effectiveness in disrupting Russia’s oil sector. Notably, President Vladimir Putin emphasized the need for improved air defenses.
Targeting Specific Refinery Components
Ukraine’s strategy has evolved to focus on specific refinery units, such as hydrocrackers. According to Nikhil Dubey, a senior research analyst at Kpler, damage to these sophisticated facilities poses a higher economic impact. Hydrocrackers are essential for producing diesel by refining crude oil, and they are usually more challenging and time-consuming to replace.
- Refinery secondary units have offline capacities of approximately 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day.
- Drone strikes have significantly contributed to these offline capacities.
- Russian diesel production saw a 10% drop in both April and May.
Patterns of Repeated Strikes
Ukrainian forces have been increasingly targeting the same refineries multiple times, complicating repair efforts. For instance, the Tuapse oil complex on the Black Sea suffered multiple strikes in April and May, drastically reducing its oil loadings by 91% compared to the previous year.
In contrast, Ust-Luga port rebounded quickly after undergoing similar attacks, reportedly increasing oil loadings by 49% month-on-month in May. While this demonstrates some resilience, it highlights the varying impacts of Ukraine’s strikes on different facilities.
Escalating Fuel Crisis in Russia
The current situation marks a significant escalation in Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s oil infrastructure. Attacks on facilities far beyond the borders of Ukraine surged in recent years. In 2025, there were 658 strikes, a substantial increase compared to previous years. Projections indicate that this pace may lead to over 800 strikes this year alone.
Effects on Fuel Availability
- Long queues at gas stations in Russian-occupied Crimea signal severe supply shortages.
- Fuel sale restrictions have been reported across 14 regions in Russia.
- Moscow implemented a ban on gasoline exports on April 1 and on aviation fuel beginning June 1.
Despite these fuel shortages, some analysts urge caution in declaring a definitive crisis. Tatiana Mitrova from the Center on Global Energy Policy suggests that while Ukrainian attacks have intensified, they have yet to fully incapacitate Russia’s oil infrastructure. The resilience of Russia’s system is being tested but remains under strain from increasing Ukrainian pressure.
