Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan: UFC Vegas 118 Prediction and Odds

UFC Vegas 118 showcases a thrilling lightweight matchup between Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan this Saturday. With both fighters on impressive winning streaks, this bout promises to be a highlight of the event.
Fares Ziam: The Rising Star
Fares Ziam, known as “Smile Killer,” currently holds a record of 18 wins and 4 losses. He is riding a remarkable six-fight winning streak, placing him at 15th in the UFC lightweight rankings. Ziam’s striking capabilities are among the best in the division, featuring a mix of precise boxing and powerful kicks.
His recent victories include a significant unanimous decision win over Mike Davis in January 2025, followed by a decisive finish against Nazim Sadykhov. With six knockouts under his belt, Ziam is not just a striker but also an elite grappler, which enhances his fighting strategy.
Tom Nolan: The Young Contender
Tom Nolan, labeled “Big Train,” boasts a record of 10 wins and 1 loss. Only 26 years old, the Australian fighter is rapidly gaining recognition as an exciting prospect in the lightweight division. He enters this contest on a four-fight victory streak, with pivotal wins over names such as Viacheslav Borshchev and Charlie Campbell.
- Unanimous decision victory against Viacheslav Borshchev at UFC 312 in February 2025.
- First-round rear naked choke submission of Charlie Campbell at UFC Perth in September 2025.
Nolan’s finishing ability is evident, with five of his ten career victories coming by knockout. His unique blend of physical size and quick skill development gives him an edge that could surprise Ziam.
Fight Analysis: Ziam vs. Nolan
The odds for this fight favor Fares Ziam at -310, while Tom Nolan stands at +250. The over/under of 1.5 rounds is set at -215 for over and +165 for under.
Reasons Ziam Will Triumph
- Experience against ranked opponents gives Ziam an advantage.
- Technical striking and finishing instinct enhance his chances.
- His grappling expertise allows for a solid game plan in both standing and ground situations.
Reasons Nolan Could Secure an Upset
- Nolan possesses a significant size and reach advantage.
- His recent performance against tougher opponents indicates growth.
- Five career knockouts showcase his punching power.
Final Prediction
Both fighters bring unique strengths to the octagon. However, the experience gap favors Ziam significantly. While Nolan’s athleticism and reach may keep him competitive early on, Ziam’s precision striking and experience are likely to lead him to victory.
Expect Fares Ziam to extend his winning streak, possibly securing a TKO in the second round, further establishing his position as a top contender in the lightweight division at UFC Vegas 118.



