Quebec is set to experience a significant shift from a mild autumn to a potentially shocking winter. According to meteorologist Réjean Ouimet, the sudden transition can be more intense following a warm fall. Recent temperature fluctuations provide an early indication of this impending change.
Preliminary Winter Analysis: Potential Shock in Quebec
Residents can expect a sharp transition towards winter in November. Early winter temperatures may be near or below the seasonal average from the West to Quebec, with occasional warm-ups anticipated. Meteorological predictions suggest that storms will primarily track through the Great Lakes and move down the St. Lawrence River.
Understanding the “Shock” of Winter
Ouimet explains that the winter transition typically occurs around November 15 in cases of accelerated change. Two primary scenarios may unfold:
- The first scenario involves short bursts of cold, suggesting a distant polar vortex. In this case, the cold is unorganized and does not last long.
- In a rare second scenario, prolonged cold could establish itself for several weeks, similar to conditions experienced in 1997, 2000, and 2021.
This year’s winter characteristics may leave a lasting impression due to the contrast with prior conditions.
Historical Timeline and 2025 Expectations
Seasonal winter conditions, including snow and cold, generally follow a historical timeline:
- November 17 – Val-d’Or
- November 29 – Quebec City
- November 30 – Gaspé
- December 12 – Montreal
On average, Quebec receives about 9 snowfalls and accumulates 50 to 100 cm of measurable snow before the winter solstice. Current indications suggest that this pattern is unlikely to be disrupted significantly in 2025.
Long-term Temperature Forecasts
After an initial cold snap affecting much of the region, preliminary forecasts from MétéoMédia and The Weather Network predict near-normal temperatures for December, January, and February across the Prairies and Quebec. Exceptions may occur in the northwestern areas, extending from northern British Columbia to Yukon, as well as the Maritimes and portions of the Lower North Shore in Quebec.
Storm Trajectories and Winter Storm Activity
The primary path for winter storm systems is projected to traverse the Great Lakes region before descending into the St. Lawrence. Meanwhile, British Columbia’s coastline is expected to experience particularly active weather patterns at times.
