The third round of the Shanghai Masters 2025 will feature an exciting match between Daniil Medvedev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Medvedev, seeded 16th, will take on the 18th seed, Fokina, both of whom received first-round byes in the tournament.
Recent Performance Overview
Daniil Medvedev has had a consistent season, reaching the quarterfinals at Hangzhou and the semifinals at Beijing. He overpowered qualifier Dalibor Svrcina in the first round, winning in straight sets. Despite finishing as runner-up six times since Rome 2023, he showcases strong form with semifinal finishes in Marseille and Indian Wells, and quarterfinal appearances in Doha, Dubai, Madrid, Libema, and Washington.
Medvedev’s statistical performance includes:
- 409 aces
- 75% win rate on first serves
- 33% success rate on return points
- 38% break point conversion from 437 opportunities
On the other hand, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is enjoying his best season to date. He reached his career-high ranking of No. 18 in August and currently sits at No. 20. Fokina advanced past Matteo Arnaldi with a comfortable victory in the first round. Although he is still chasing his first ATP singles title, he reached three finals this year at Delray, Acapulco, and Washington.
Fokina’s notable statistics include:
- 200 aces
- 68% win rate on first serves
- 32% success rate on return points
- 45% break point conversion from 456 chances
Head-to-Head Record
Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head rivalry against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina with 5 wins to 1. The two players first met in 2021, with Medvedev winning their initial four encounters. Fokina secured a breakthrough victory in Canada last year, but Medvedev soon regained command, winning their latest match in straight sets in Beijing.
| Year | Event | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Round of 16 Beijing | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2024 | Round of 32 Canada | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4, 1-6, 6-2 |
| 2024 | Quarterfinal Dubai | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Quarterfinal Indian Wells | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 2023 | Round of 32 Rotterdam | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 2021 | Round of 32 Madrid | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
Match Prediction and Betting Odds
Given his consistency and recent performances, Daniil Medvedev is favored to win this matchup. However, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s unpredictability and tenacity could pose a challenge. The anticipated outcome leans towards Medvedev in straight sets.
The current betting odds reflect this prediction:
- Daniil Medvedev: -184
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: +150
Additionally, here are some specific betting lines:
- Set 1 Winner – Medvedev: -148
- Set 1 Winner – Fokina: +122
- Total Games Over 22.5: -110
- Total Games Under 22.5: -120
- Total Sets Over 2.5: +132
- Total Sets Under 2.5: -180
Fans can expect a fiercely competitive match as both players vie for a spot in the later rounds of the Shanghai Masters 2025.
