After a 14-year playoff drought, the Buffalo Sabres have ended their slump. This leaves the Detroit Red Wings at risk of facing a similar fate, as they could be heading for a 10th consecutive season without postseason play. Currently, their chances of clinching a playoff spot have dwindled to 11.5% with only five games remaining.
Three Key Factors Behind Detroit’s Decline
Despite a spirited attempt to turn their season around, the Red Wings are struggling. They have lost six of their last eight games since resuming play after the Olympic break, failing to capitalize on critical moments.
Injury Concerns: Larkin’s Impact
Captain Dylan Larkin suffered a leg injury on March 6 that kept him out for seven games. Since his return, he has struggled to regain full performance. Larkin’s average of possession-driving plays is down from 18.7 to 13.8 per 20 minutes, revealing a significant dip in his effectiveness. His output in scoring opportunities has also diminished.
- Pre-injury average: 18.7 possession-driving plays per 20 minutes.
- Post-injury average: 13.8 possession-driving plays per 20 minutes.
- Expected goals for (xGF%) with Larkin: 49.3% prior to injury; 33.1% post-injury.
Larkin’s presence on the ice has correlated with the team’s ability to produce goals. Coach Todd McLellan acknowledged Larkin’s challenges in adjusting post-injury, indicating the necessity to manage his minutes effectively.
Finishing Problems at Five-on-Five
The Red Wings have faced ongoing challenges with goal scoring at five-on-five. They rank 27th in shot quality and have left 18.5 goals unscored this season based on their performance. Their struggle continued into the later months, ranking 30th in expected goals per 60 minutes since December 1.
- Goals scored at five-on-five since the Olympic break: 33 (2.14 per 60 minutes).
- Teams with fewer goals during this timeframe: Toronto Maple Leafs (32), Vancouver Canucks (31).
While they have attempted to generate offense, including some rush goals, the overall consistency has waned. Time is running short for the Red Wings to revive their scoring efforts.
Poor Penalty Kill Performance
The Red Wings’ penalty kill has been another debilitating issue this season, operating at just 69.6% over the last 19 games. This performance directly impacts their chances at crucial moments in games. Four game-winning goals scored against them since the Olympics have come during power plays.
- Opponent zone possession time per two minutes: 48 seconds (ranked 31st).
- Puck clearance success rate: 61% (worst in the league).
These issues culminated in significant game losses, as evidenced by the recent defeat against the Minnesota Wild. Defensive errors, including failed puck clearances, have allowed opponents to capitalize on power play opportunities.
Ultimately, the Detroit Red Wings face an uphill battle as they navigate these critical challenges. As their playoff hopes remain dim, they must address these factors swiftly if they hope to break the streak of failure and return to competing in the postseason.
