The recent Czech election has led to significant outcomes, particularly for billionaire populist Andrej Babis. His party, ANO, topped the polls, allaying some initial doubts about his position. However, the results raise questions about future governance and potential coalition agreements.
Election Highlights
Despite predictions suggesting limited surprises, the results aligned with pre-election sentiments. Few anticipated that the current centre-right coalition would endure, and the expectation that Babis would emerge in first place proved correct. Yet, whether he can govern independently remains uncertain.
Coalition Prospects
Following the election, Babis is expected to initiate talks with two smaller right-wing parties. These are:
- Motorists for Themselves, opposing the Green Deal
- Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), led by Tomio Okamura, focusing on anti-immigration themes
Both parties have successfully crossed the 5% threshold necessary for parliamentary representation.
Issues at Stake
Babis’s ANO party aligns closely with the Motorists. Both share skepticism about EU emissions targets and are against financial burdens on Czech households for cleaner energy. They also oppose the EU’s planned ban on new petrol and diesel cars after 2035.
The relationship with the SPD could be more complex. The party participated in a formal alliance with various fringe right-wing groups, necessitating some compromises on parliamentary seats. Additionally, Okamura may struggle to manage his caucus effectively, which could create challenges within any coalition.
Political Challenges Ahead
Babis has decisively ruled out referendums concerning EU or NATO membership, a priority for the SPD. During the campaign, he capitalized on anti-Ukrainian sentiment, criticizing the previous government’s support for Ukrainian refugees. However, SPD’s calls for the mass deportation of these refugees may not resonate within the broader political landscape.
Given the complexities of coalition politics, Babis might ultimately choose to form a minority government. This cabinet could rely on the support of both the Motorists and SPD while allowing him greater autonomy.
In summary, while Babis’s party celebrates a significant electoral victory, the true test lies ahead as he navigates the intricate dance of coalition-building and governance.
