GUADALAJARA — The death of notorious drug kingpin Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” marks a significant turning point for the Jalisco New Generation cartel (CJNG). With Oseguera’s health declining due to kidney failure, he strategically delegated operations to trusted lieutenants, ensuring the cartel’s multibillion-dollar business model remained intact during his treatment. However, following his death at the hands of Mexican soldiers, the cartel’s response—a violent nationwide campaign—reveals both desperation and a calculated power play among his closest commanders.
The apparent chaos unleashed following Oseguera’s death raises critical questions: What will become of the CJNG’s fractured leadership? Will the cartel descend into a bloody power struggle, or is a temporary alliance among rivals feasible? The immediate violence, which includes arson and ambushes resulting in the deaths of 25 National Guard members, signifies that the power vacuum left by El Mencho could lead to unpredictable and brutal conflicts within the cartel’s hierarchy.
Power Struggles Ahead: New Leaders and Emerging Rivalries
The CJNG operates with a horizontal leadership structure, which allows for rapid responses amid crisis situations. However, this very structure may also lead to fragmentation as regional commanders vie for dominance. Key contenders include:
- Juan Carlos Valencia González (“03”): El Mencho’s stepson and commander of the feared Grupo Elite, Valencia has dual lineage—delivering both cartel expertise and financial operations acumen.
- Ricardo Ruiz (“RR”): A propaganda expert, Ruiz’s recent notoriety stems from viral videos that bolster cartel morale; however, he is implicated in high-profile killings, complicating his leadership aspirations.
- Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”): Holding sway over meth production facilities, he is believed to have fostered alliances with rival Sinaloa cartel factions, marking him as a player on both sides of the drug war.
- Abraham Jesús Ambriz Cano (“El Yogurth”): With a reputation for attracting mercenaries, Ambriz’s experience could bolster military capabilities within the cartel.
The contrasting strengths and weaknesses of these potential successors suggest an imminent battle over profits, routes, and political connections that could destabilize the cartel further. The interplay of loyalty and competition will be crucial in determining whether they can maintain a united front against the Mexican government, which remains a significant adversary.
Comparative Analysis: Pre- and Post-Oseguera Leadership
| Aspect | Before Oseguera’s Death | After Oseguera’s Death |
|---|---|---|
| Leadership Structure | Centralized under El Mencho | Decentralized; potential fragmentation |
| Command Cohesion | Strong loyalty and fear of retaliation | Rivalries and potential power struggles |
| Violent Response | Targeted actions against rivals | Immediate, widespread violence and chaos |
| Public Perception | Respected and feared figure | Uncertainty and unpredictability |
Ripple Effects: Implications Across Borders
The CJNG’s evolving dynamics have far-reaching implications not just within Mexico but across the U.S. and beyond. For the United States, increased violence and instability could lead to heightened drug trafficking activity, particularly of potent substances like fentanyl. Border security measures may need recalibrating to address these new dynamics. Additionally, the fear of backlash among diverse communities in Southern California reflects a microcosm of the larger implications of cartel warfare—instability that transcends borders.
In Canada and Australia, drug markets may experience fluctuations as cartel supply routes adapt to these shifts in power, reflecting the interconnected nature of the global drug trade. The UK could see a ripple effect in emerging crime syndicates adapting CJNG tactics as a template for operations.
Projected Outcomes: What to Watch for Next
As the landscape shifts rapidly following Oseguera’s death, analysts predict several developments:
- Formation of Alliances: The potential for temporary alliances among rivals may offer a fleeting ceasefire, allowing for cartel operations to continue while leaders jockey for position.
- Increased Violence: A bloody power struggle is likely, with factions attempting to assert dominance—potentially leading to a surge in violent incidents across Mexico.
- Government Countermeasures: Anticipate intensified government intervention, which could lead to escalated military actions targeting cartel strongholds, further impacting public safety.
The unfolding saga of the Jalisco New Generation cartel serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing battle for supremacy within the drug trade. As the dust settles from El Mencho’s reign, the fragility of the CJNG may give rise to an unprecedented level of violence, tearing at the fabric of both local communities and law enforcement’s ability to respond.
