Vancouver and the Pacific Northwest face a significant risk from earthquakes, particularly from the Cascadia Megathrust fault. A report from the provincial government highlights the potential impacts of a magnitude 9 earthquake originating near Vancouver Island. Such an event could severely threaten human safety, infrastructure, and the region’s economic stability.
Earthquake Risks and Projections
The report indicates that a Cascadia Megathrust earthquake could damage around 18,000 buildings across British Columbia. It estimates potential injuries at 10,000 and fatalities at approximately 3,400 individuals. Although the annual probability of this earthquake occurring is less than one percent, there is a 10 to 20 percent chance it will happen within the next 50 years.
This earthquake could result in substantial economic damages, with projections of losses reaching $128 billion. The implications could jeopardize the stability of Canada’s insurance sector, halve economic growth, and lead to a loss of approximately 43,700 jobs within the decade following the event. Direct losses from building damage due to the earthquake could amount to around $38 billion. Buildings constructed before 1990 are particularly vulnerable, as they do not meet current earthquake safety standards.
Associated Risks Beyond Earthquakes
The potential for an earthquake could trigger various secondary risks, including:
- Landslides
- Liquefaction
- Tsunamis
- Floods
- Urban fires
Aftershocks could further complicate recovery efforts by complicating damage assessments and impairing emergency responses.
Vancouver’s Preparedness Efforts
In 2024, Vancouver conducted a seismic risk assessment to evaluate the vulnerability of its buildings. This assessment revealed that nearly 6,100 structures could be “completely and extensively damaged,” leading to an estimated $17 billion in direct financial losses. It was discovered that ten percent of the city’s buildings accounted for nearly 80 percent of the risk, particularly older wood, brick, and concrete residential structures.
High-risk neighborhoods also harbor significant populations of renters, with around 30 percent being low-income, 10 percent seniors, and a large portion identifying as visible minorities. These groups may face more challenges in enhancing their living conditions and making necessary upgrades to their buildings, increasing their susceptibility to earthquake-related risks.
Strategies for Earthquake Preparation
Vancouver recognizes that preparing for an earthquake involves complex city-wide collaboration. Many at-risk buildings are privately owned, necessitating a by-law that mandates seismic upgrades during major renovations. The city also encourages redevelopment of older structures. However, the potential displacement of residents and local businesses remains a substantial hurdle, highlighting the need for provincial and federal support.
Emergency preparedness initiatives will focus on immediate safety and urgent needs following an earthquake. Residents are encouraged to build community support systems and prepare emergency kits. The City of Vancouver also advises following credible information sources to stay informed about earthquake readiness.
