Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) is set to announce its third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on December 4, 2023. For this upcoming quarter, Rubrik forecasts revenues between $319 million and $321 million. This represents a significant growth rate of 35% to 36% year-over-year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates revenues at approximately $320.93 million, indicating an increase of 35.88% from the previous year. However, the consensus also predicts a loss of 17 cents per share, slightly widening over the last month.
Performance Highlights of Rubrik
Rubrik has consistently outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all four trailing quarters. On average, this resulted in an impressive surprise percentage of 61.70%. Analysts are watching closely to see if this trend continues with the upcoming earnings announcement.
Key Factors Influencing Q3 Earnings
The company is expected to benefit from a robust performance in the cyber resilience market, fueled by increasing demand for its data security solutions. Significant growth in subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) has been a hallmark for Rubrik. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company reported a 27% year-over-year increase in customers with more than $100,000 in subscription ARR, totaling 2,505 customers as of July 31, 2025.
- Cloud ARR grew by 57%, reaching $1.1 billion, driven by the adoption of the Rubrik Security Cloud platform.
- Expected non-GAAP subscription ARR contribution margin is approximately 6.5% for Q3.
- Net new subscription ARR is projected to contribute 21% to 22% of the full-year total.
Stock Performance and Valuation
Over the past six months, Rubrik’s stock has declined by 30.1%. This performance contrasts with the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which recorded a return of 27.8%. A Value Score of F indicates a stretched valuation, as Rubrik is trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 9.07, significantly higher than the industry’s 4.87.
Client Expansion and Strategic Collaborations
Rubrik’s collaboration agreements with major industry players have been pivotal for its growth. Notable partnerships include:
- A strategic agreement with Amazon’s AWS, enhancing cyber resilience through Rubrik’s technology and AWS’s secure infrastructure.
- A partnership with Microsoft, allowing Rubrik to integrate with Microsoft Copilot Studio to aid AI agent deployment.
In addition, Rubrik has introduced several advanced offerings, such as Rubrik Intelligent Business Recovery for Microsoft 365, which streamlines recovery processes for modern development pipelines.
Competitive Landscape
Despite its expanding clientele, Rubrik faces significant competition, particularly from companies like Fortinet. Fortinet is enhancing its cybersecurity offerings and integrating advanced technologies to maintain a competitive edge.
Outlook and Conclusion
As Rubrik approaches its earnings report, growth in client acquisition and strong recovery solutions are expected to contribute positively to its results. Nevertheless, challenging market conditions and heightened competition pose risks. Currently, Rubrik holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting that investors should consider waiting for more favorable market conditions before investing.
