Macau’s casino sector showcased significant strength in October, overcoming challenges associated with the Golden Week festivities. According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, the Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP24.09 billion (US$3.01 billion), marking a year-on-year increase of 15.9 percent.
Surpassing Expectations
This GGR performance exceeded the Deutsche Bank Consensus Metrix forecast of a 9.9 percent annual rise. Notably, the revenue for October approached 91 percent of pre-pandemic levels recorded in October 2019.
October also demonstrated a sequential improvement of 31.7 percent compared to September, resulting in a daily revenue increase of 27.4 percent. According to Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella, this rise was approximately 1,130 basis points beyond historical trends observed between 2013 and 2019.
Comparison with Previous Months
- October GGR was 8.9 percent below 2019 figures.
- September showed a 17.2 percent decline year-on-year.
- August and July reported decreases of 8.7 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively.
Challenges During Golden Week
Despite achieving strong overall results, the Golden Week faced disruptions, notably from a typhoon and a coinciding event, the 2025 Singapore Grand Prix. Analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup observed a decline in gaming revenue during the latter half of the holiday.
JPMorgan’s DS Kim and Citigroup’s George Choi noted that larger players did not return until after the holiday, impacting revenue during these crucial days.
Visitor Statistics
During the Golden Week, Macau recorded a remarkable daily average of approximately 143,000 visitor arrivals. Additionally, the total number of visitors in September experienced a year-on-year rise of 10 percent, reaching 2.8 million.
Complete visitor data for October is expected to be released later this month.
Outlook for Future Revenue Growth
Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank anticipates that November’s GGR will be around US$2.544 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2 percent. This outlook also surpasses the Consensus Metrix forecast of 6.8 percent.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Deutsche Bank projects a GGR increase to US$8.1 billion, equating to a 12.9 percent rise year-on-year. Full-year GGR forecasts indicate US$30.8 billion for 2025 and US$32.4 billion for 2026, resulting in annual growth rates of 8.6 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively.
