Recent polling indicates that Mikie Sherrill, a Democratic candidate, holds a slight lead in the New Jersey gubernatorial race against her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli. According to a survey conducted by KAConsulting, Sherrill is currently ahead by three percentage points, a decrease from her five-point lead in July.
Polling Insights on New Jersey Gubernatorial Race
The latest KAConsulting poll shows that 47% of registered and likely voters support Sherrill, while 44% favor Ciattarelli. This is a notable change from previous months, as Ciattarelli’s support has increased from 42% to 44% within the last three months.
Context of the Election
This election is significant as it marks one of only two gubernatorial races in 2023, alongside Virginia. The candidates are competing to succeed Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is completing his term limit. Notably, since 2013, Republicans have not won a gubernatorial election in New Jersey. However, recent trends suggest a shift; President Trump saw a ten-point increase in vote share in the state during the 2024 elections, marking the best performance for a GOP nominee in twenty years.
Controversies Affecting the Race
Sherrill’s campaign faced challenges following the release of military records by the National Archives. These records revealed disciplinary issues and indicated she was barred from graduating in 1994 due to her refusal to inform on peers involved in a cheating scandal at the U.S. Naval Academy.
Polling Details
- Polling firm: KAConsulting
- Poll conducted: October 15-16
- Sample size: 601 registered and likely voters
- Margin of error: +/- 4 percentage points
The Change NJ PAC, which supports Ciattarelli, commissioned the poll. A previous study by Quantus Insights indicated a decrease in Sherrill’s lead from ten points to just two points earlier in October.
Expert Opinions and Statements
Political analyst Mark Shanahan remarked on the competitive dynamics, noting that despite the tightening race, New Jersey has historically leaned Democratic. He suggested that underlying issues such as economic struggles might favor Sherrill in the long run.
Kellyanne Conway, linked to Ciattarelli’s campaign, stated that the margins are narrowing and highlighted Sherrill’s controversies as potential liabilities. Meanwhile, Donald Trump publicly endorsed Ciattarelli, criticizing Sherrill and emphasizing his candidate’s potential to lower energy costs.
As the election date of November 4 approaches, early voting will commence on October 22. With the tightening race, both candidates are intensifying their campaigns to secure vital support from New Jersey voters.
