The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced a delay in its annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement due to the ongoing government shutdown. This adjustment is crucial for the approximately 75 million beneficiaries who depend on Social Security to maintain their purchasing power amidst rising prices.
New COLA Announcement Date Set
Initially scheduled for October 15, the COLA announcement will now coincide with the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This data is expected to be published on October 24, resulting in a revised schedule for the SSA’s COLA announcement to also be on the same date.
The SSA confirmed in an October 14 email, “The Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced they will issue the September 2025 Consumer Price Index on October 24. The Social Security Administration will use this release to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment on October 24 as well.” The new COLA will take effect on January 1, 2026.
Projected COLA Figures
Recent estimates indicate that the 2026 COLA could be approximately 2.7%. This figure is slightly above the 2.5% increase beneficiaries received in 2025. The Senior Citizens League, which advocates for older Americans, based its forecast on August’s inflation data, provided by the BLS. However, the SSA will consider September’s inflation data, which could lead to adjustments in the final announcement.
- AARP’s expectations suggest the COLA may range from 2.6% to 2.9%.
- A 2.7% increase would raise monthly payments for retired workers from $2,008 to $2,062.
Current Inflation Trends
As of now, the September CPI is projected to rise to an annual rate of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in August, according to economists surveyed by FactSet. Factors contributing to rising inflation include tariffs imposed during the previous administration, impacting prices of various imported goods including clothing and food.
Economists have noted a concerning trend. Forty-five percent of items in the CPI basket are reporting price increases at or above 3%. This reflects a shift in the inflationary environment, highlighting potential financial pressure on retirees if the 2026 adjustment does not adequately match inflation trends.
The Federal Reserve anticipates that its preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, will rise to 3.1% in 2025 and subsequently decline to 2.6% in 2026. As the deadline for the COLA announcement approaches, many beneficiaries will be closely monitoring these developments for their financial future.
