Tropical Storm Lorenzo has emerged in the central Atlantic, marking the 12th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed at 5 a.m. EDT on October 13, located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Details
As of 11 a.m. EDT on the same day, Lorenzo was moving northwest at a speed of 16 mph (26 km/h). The storm boasts maximum winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and a central pressure of 1002 mb. Predictions indicate it may reach peak winds of 70 mph by Thursday, although it is projected to recurve to the north and northeast over the ocean, posing no threat to land.
Seasonal Overview
Lorenzo’s formation date closely aligns with the historical average of October 11 for the season’s twelfth named storm. Current season statistics show 12 named storms, including four hurricanes and three major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index at 91% of the average. The historical averages for this period are approximately 12.2 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.
Unusual Formation Location
The positioning of Tropical Storm Lorenzo is notable as it formed in a rare location for this time of year, south of 20°N and far east in the deep tropics. The last occurrence of a named storm forming this far east in October was in 2003.
Implications of Climate Change
Research indicates that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are approximately 2° warmer than average, with these conditions linked to human-caused climate change. This warmer water could potentially influence Lorenzo’s development, despite prevailing wind shear and dry air, which may limit its intensity.
Upcoming Developments
- A tropical wave is expected to move from the west coast of Africa towards the Lesser Antilles by October 20.
- Forecast models, including both GFS and European, suggest the wave could develop due to favorable wind conditions.
- Caribbean residents should monitor future updates as the disturbance approaches, even though no immediate threat is noted.
The patterns and behaviors of these storms offer insights into the ongoing dynamics of the Atlantic hurricane season, emphasizing the importance of continued observation and readiness for potential developments.
