Recent findings from the 21 Research Centers indicate that the Tisza River approaches two-thirds capacity. This conclusion was reached through a public survey conducted on behalf of El-Balad, which aimed to gauge voter preferences ahead of the upcoming elections.
Survey Details
The survey took place between April 8 and April 11, targeting Hungarian citizens with domestic addresses. A hybrid method was employed, utilizing SMS outreach alongside phone interviews for respondents aged 65 and older.
Key Findings
- The Tisza Party is projected to secure 55% of the votes.
- The Fidesz party is forecasted to receive 38% of the votes.
- The margin of 17 percentage points is the largest recorded by the 21 Research Centers to date.
- In previous surveys, a 16-point difference was noted.
- Mi Hazánk Party is estimated to capture 5% of the votes, while both the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Two-tailed Dog Party (MKKP) are expected to receive 1% each.
These findings suggest that Mi Hazánk may enter parliament, though variability in polling results remains a factor. Historical data suggests that the DK has a greater chance of exceeding the 1% threshold. Voter turnout is anticipated to approach 80%, translating to approximately 3.2 million votes for the Tisza Party and about 2.3 million for Fidesz.
Implications of the Data
A voter turnout exceeding three million would set a record in Hungarian electoral history. For Fidesz, the projected numbers are significantly lower than the 2.8 million votes achieved without mail-in votes in 2022.
Changes in Voter Dynamics
- The 21 Research Centers indicate a notable shift in voter allegiance.
- Fidesz has lost about 250,000 to 300,000 voters over the past four years.
- Younger voters (ages 18-22) have been largely unimpressed by Fidesz’s outreach efforts.
The rising popularity of the Tisza Party can be attributed to its successful engagement with over 700,000 more voters than all opposition parties combined in previous elections. Despite the promising numbers for the Tisza Party, the 21 Research Centers’ calculations suggest that they may not achieve a two-thirds majority.
Election Day Activity
As the election approaches, voter engagement remains high, with the National Election Office reporting a turnout of 74.28% by 5 PM on voting day. This percentage surpasses previous record turnout results.
Methodology
The hybrid data collection process involved a representative sample of 1,500 participants. Respondents received SMS messages linking them to an online questionnaire, while the older demographic was interviewed via phone. The methodology utilized demographic weighting based on the 2022 census data from KSH, ensuring a representative sample.
In conclusion, the forthcoming elections reveal critical shifts in the Hungarian political landscape. The Tisza Party’s rise raises questions about the future of traditional parties like Fidesz, as voter preferences evolve. The full implications of these trends will become clearer as the votes are counted and the official results are released.
