Heavy snow squalls are anticipated to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, affecting Southern Ontario. Environment Canada has issued numerous snow squall watches and warnings across the region in response to the impending weather.
Snow Squalls Impacting School Buses
Expect localized whiteout conditions and rapid snowfall accumulation overnight and into Thursday morning. A frontal squall is likely to weaken soon and should not impact the morning school bus operations. However, traditional lake-effect squalls could pose a larger threat.
Wiidespread Warnings Across Regions
The forecast is still uncertain regarding the timing and intensity of these snow squalls. Some models predict weaker squalls until later Thursday morning, yet caution is advised. A significant concern arises from areas where Environment Canada has warned of 20 to 50 cm of snowfall, which typically would ensure school cancellations.
- Bruce Peninsula: Estimated 90% chance of bus cancellations due to early morning hazards.
- South Muskoka: 75% chance for cancellations under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board.
- North Simcoe County: Also within the 75% cancellation risk category.
- North Muskoka and Town of Parry Sound: 50% chance of cancellations due to possible poor travel conditions.
- Southern Huron and Northern Perth: Assigned a 25% likelihood of cancellations.
Variability in Cancellation Decisions
This year, school boards have been hesitant to cancel bus services, even during significant weather warnings. As a result, confidence in the likelihood of cancellations is lower than usual. The Bruce Peninsula stands out, with straightforward reasons for potential bus cancellations in the forecast.
Travel conditions may deteriorate quickly around the morning commute in several key areas. These include Kincardine and Southampton in Bluewater, and various regions of the Simcoe County District School Board.
Outlook Across Ontario
In contrast, the Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario will likely experience little to no impact from snow conditions. Urban school boards in these areas are essentially at a zero percent chance for cancellations.
While a few fringe areas may face a small risk of weather-related bus cancellations, widespread impacts throughout Southern Ontario appear doubtful at this time. Expect the snow squall activity to predominantly affect the northern and western regions.
